Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald stated that a united Ireland is “within touching distance” in the days before the restoration of power sharing. Her comment was widely reported, not just in local media, but also outside Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein frequently suggest that there is a momentum towards a united Ireland, with references to their hope to be in government on both sides of the border soon and to the impact of Brexit. What they hint at, but are reluctant to state openly, is where the momentum really comes from: demographic change. The population of the North is very slowly changing, with a higher proportion of Catholics and a lower proportion of Protestants.
The idea that demographic change provides a solution is entirely wrong. It would be a mistake to assume that the imperfect peace that now reigns in Northern Ireland will continue indefinitely. That the “peace process” could unravel is clear both from an analysis of the situation in the North but also from an analysis of other places.
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