The recent Irish general election result represents a significant setback for Sinn Fein. The party saw a 5.5% drop in its vote from a high point at the last general election in 2020 of 24.5%. In 2020 it ran too few candidates and was therefore unable to fully capitalise on its percentage share. It is widely accepted that it could have won up to 47 TD (or MP) seats, rather than the 38 it came home with. In this election Sinn Fein managed to return a similar number of seats as before and are now proclaiming this as a success. This is only accurate in the sense the result could have been even worse, given their performance in the local and European elections in June of this year (in the local elections, it scored only 12% of the vote).
In the aftermath of the 2020 election, Sinn Fein (SF) was the major opposition party to the coalition government of the traditional pro-capitalist parties, Fianna Fail (FF) and Fine Gael (FG), with the Green Party. The Coalition was deeply unpopular for long periods and Sinn Fein consistently topped the opinion polls. If it had sustained its lead and won the predicted share of the vote in the actual election, it would now be forming the next government, albeit in coalition with other smaller parties. Its confidence was palpable, and the idea that Sinn Fein would be leading governments in both the north and south of Ireland became widely accepted.
Coalition Parties Stabilise Vote, Sinn Fein Lose Momentum
One year ago, Sinn Fein began to drop in the opinion polls. There are several interrelated reasons for this. In part, it was because the government’s position stabilised as some factors turned in its favour. Fine Gael installed a new leader, Simon Harris, who was seen as youthful and forward looking. Fianna Fail began to pull back some of its traditional voters as memories of the savage cuts after the Great Crash began to fade. Paradoxically, the smallest coalition party, the Greens, suffered badly as opposition to the coalition government became increasingly centred around the environmental policies it was most closely associated with. The Greens took the hits, and Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were able to deflect blame.